cycling - info cascade

2. Look deeper into the concept of a “information cascade.” Can you cite an example of where following the actions of others was a sound idea? Where doing so ended up being a poor choice?


My immediate response to this question related to cycling - as mentioned a couple previous blogs, I recently signed a pro contract to race my bike. I've been racing since I was 12 and hoped the day would come. 


Though its difficult sport to gain entrance into and even more difficult sport to understand, the basics are this:


1.) You have to be very fit. But the races are not like track meets - whos the fastest. The fat old guys still win.
2.) It is an extremely tactical sport. There are no dumb jocks who succeed. You have to be razor sharp.


The major type of racing in the United States is called "Criterium Racing." A city block - or set of blocks - is shut down and 1 mile loop is created. Tens of thousand of bewildered spectators watch as 150 pros zoom around and do laps around these 6-corner circuits with their eyes on the $20,000 purse. There are crashes, insane speed, quitters, unbelievable solo efforts and team tactics. 


So, 1 mile loop, 50 miles, 50 laps downtown, crowds going nuts! The information cascade effect is apparent everly lap the race. If you are racing 50 miles are you going to go balls to the wall from the gun? No. But there are guys who do out of sheer stupidity or because they know that if they can win covetted "Crowd Primes" in which race organizers collected money from the crowd and put it up for grabs mid race. Its a gamble but I've seen crowd primes higher than $2500. 


So rider A "attacks" to try and get clear of the main field. And riders B-Z file in and follow the guy in front of them. rider A never gets away. Conversely, Rider Y attacks and the whole main field lets him go thinking he's not a threat -maybe they don't recognize the new guy. Before they know it, Rider Y is gone and the rest are fighting for second. Meanwhile Rider M new all along that he needed to be with rider Y. 


In another case, lets say Team A has a rider attack and he stays away. The other dominant team, Team B, lets him go because they know they let him roast for awhile and then line up and bring him back then delivering their own rider to victoy. Sometimes, Team B wins, Sometimes Team A wins. Teams C-Z are too complacent and pick a side. They are following Team A guy because they know he's the man, or they follow Team Bs leadout train because they are the best at what they do...




All are examples of how information cascade can be positive and negative. Hope it made sense. Cycling is a lot more in depth than my lame attempt at its explanation. It is nothing but a chess match.