1. If Shirky is right, and we’re headed to a period where social media tools like YouTube, Flickr, and social networks like Facebook become “invisible,” what’s the impact on things you spend money on as consumers? Books? Movies? Music?
I think to an extent Shirky is right. As technology develops and our reliance on the web increases and changes, the use of the social networks will dim a little. When Facebook began, no one would have considered putting a little "like" icon over every news article and product that a person might like. I often read VeloNews and cyclingNews - two online resources for well, cycling news. Every article has a button for the user to like it, disqus it, tweet it and open-id it. I think that the social networking world will continue to expand until some cross-platform thing is able to link all of them together, eliminating the uniqueness of one service over the other.
These days, most every business, including mom and pops, have a website. this was no the case 10 years ago. Now every business is on facebook. If they aren;t, they have to play catch up. Once everyone is on facebook and everyone has a website, and assuming there will be a cross platform social network - sales could go down particularly for advertisers.
I think at first if everything is together, sales will be booming but if there is one social marketing aggregator, what would be the need for people to go to facebook, twitter, myspace and what ever else? The fewer the hits on those sites, the less the advertisers will want to advertise there. They will move their money to the aggregator...then how do the other's stay alive?
That said, I don't think this natural rise and demise will eliminate business. I think its niave to assume that we have hit the ceiling of capability and creativity. When color TV hit the market I'm sure people thought that was it then too, but look where we are now.
I know this sounds rediculous, and absolutely absurd, but I think its also to naive to immediatly discount the possibility of teleportation. Yes, I know - you are thinking "what the hell is he talking about?"
In the Roman times - could they have ever conjured up the idea of wireless telephones, nuclear bombs, florescent lights, the internet etc... Probably not. If someone suggested it, it was absurd. So to think that there is possibility that in 100 years or 200 years someone will have figured out how to transport speakers from Best Buy directly to your house with a click of a button...isn't too rediculous.
So though I think yes, the social network clouds will eventually gray together and change the way things are sold and revenue, it doesnt mean thats it, throw in the towel. There will forever be a continuing atmosphere and change technologies that will continue to shape our day to day lives and what we consume.
I am not sure we'll see speakers from Best Buy delivered via teleportation in our lifetime. But - we may see a service that can virtually transplant us (via camera and microphone) to different parts of the world (think robots for rent that you can steer and control from the comfort of your home, on the French alps).
ReplyDeleteBut let's get back to the original question - what’s the impact on things you spend money on as consumers?
Do you think the "I like this" type buttons and the like tied to a social network like Facebook is the next stage of advertising? Where your friends will be the ones pushing one product over another, instead of a marketing team?